Flee To Safety:Bear Market Rally Is A Trap

To see the graphical representation of this prediction, click on http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

 select:  advanced charts with  nasdaq as symbol

 10 years with frequency monthly

charts style candlestick

 Notice that in Oct Nov Dec of 2001 there was a 700 point, 51 percent  percent rally from the December 2001 low of 1387 up to  almost 2100.

That was a much larger rally than the current fools’ rally which is only 21 percent so far.

BUT the 2001 fools’ rally was followed by a 52 percent, 990 point drop down to 1108 on the Nasdaq index.

 The March 2009 low was 1265, and today the Nasdaq index is 1453.

 

My thesis is that this is a long term bear market. If I am correct than the current rally must drop down to the December 2001 low of 1450 and test that low before the Nasdaq market can  stay higher.

 

Most likely we will fail that test and drop to 1,000 or lower on the Nasdaq.

Personally, my family is 100 percent in insured bank deposits and short term treasuries. Munis are too risky right now.

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